Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Statistics Scramble

Statistics are really a beautiful thing. The Wftda stats book has several sets of optional paperwork called action and error tracking that *never* get filled out for a variety of reasons. Also paperwork that is allegedly filled out by the jam timer who SO has other stuff to do. So we will set those aside.
The stats book also populates something called the "bout summary" tab that crunches the line-up tracking, penalty tracking, and score paperwork to magically generate all kinds of interesting numbers. The number that is most useful for team development is something called the "vtar" - it tracks each player's performance relative to that of her teammates in each position she plays at least once in the bout, so it is a relative measure that is independent of whether the game was a close one or a landslide.
Yes, as always, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. A couple of limitations of this score:
1) A strong jammer may have a low blocker vtar partially because she does not have the benefit of blocking for, well, herself, but relatively weaker jammers.
2) Penalty heavy players will lower their vtar (as the loss of a player on the track always has a dampening effect), but they will also lower the vtar of their jam-mates.
3) A single bout tells us very little, and if the player only plays the position a few times, it tells us absolutely nothing.
4) Separating out pivots from blockers in this score is splitting hairs, in my opinion, especially in lower-level teams.
5) Starting a jam in a sh*tty situation? The bench coach will probably put in a line-up tailored to that - probably lowering the vtar of players that are having a good night up until then.
For instance, in our last game for which I have statistics, I have the second-highest vtar. Was I MVP? Nope. Let's look at the numbers.
1) I was penalty-free, am overall an intelligent player in terms of strategy, and recycle like a motherfucker. Yay me! However,
2) I benefitted over some from having a statistical average of jammers, since I do not jam. Our strongest jammers take a hit here, since all our jammers also block. Since several people had an off night this was exaggerated.
3) I had a mild injury so I was generally the first to sit when we started with blockers in the box. So I didn't get dinged for sh*tty situations other than the ones that developed during a jam I started in.

However, if vtars vary significantly from bout to bout, we can look at the underlying reasons. Was there a shift in the line-up (strong players can have horrible chemistry). Do some players function better in faster games, harder-hitting games, more strategic games? In teams with relatively stable rosters, this information can be incredibly useful.

I sometimes refer to the vtar as the "butthurt" number, for obvious reasons. However, it can be an incredible tool to build a stronger team overall and tailor rosters and line-ups for key opponents. I deem it vtar-ific.

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